British Obesity Strategy Goes Into a Tailspin

The British strategy to reverse trends in the health effects of obesity is “falling apart.” So says the distinguished obesity expert Jamie Oliver. He’s a chef, a celebrity, and thus an authority on the complex mix of biological, social, and political science that defines the public health struggle with obesity.

But despite his wishes to the contrary, the UK government is going to delay marketing restrictions on junk food. Bans on BOGO deals for foods high sugar, salt, and fat would have taken effect in October. But now they’re on hold for at least another year. The administration announced a similar delay for restrictions on advertising. The only piece of marketing restrictions still on track is limits on promotional placements of these foods in stores. These provisions restrict promotional displays that encourage impulse purchases for foods deemed unhealthy.

Presumptions and Correlations Meet Financial Reality

These curbs on marketing and advertising had the potential to create quite a bit of upheaval in UK food marketing. When they were first announced, Barclays analyst James Anstead said:

“We think that the HFSS rules could create the biggest practical upheaval that the UK food retail sector has seen in several decades. It would be surprising if such dramatic practical changes had no financial consequences, although making exact predictions would be premature at this point.”​

So is this delay surprising? Not exactly. On one hand, we have the prospect of complex regulations to control marketing activities that evolve at a dizzying speed, even in the absence of regulatory pressures. So rules that make sense in the moment quickly become obsolete. Marketers are creative.

In addition, the definition of “unhealthy” food seems to constantly change. We’ve watched the focus shift from fat, to carbs, to sugar, to ultra-processing, and so on. In fact, the definition derives from correlations that don’t often hold up in controlled studies of reducing their intake. This is why the definition keeps changing.

What doesn’t change is the business model that has food companies prospering from nudging us to consume ever more food. This is unsustainable. We need a fundamental shift toward a business model in which the industry prospers from selling us better food. Not more food.

Click here, here, and here for more on the tailspin of the British obesity strategy.

Battle of Britain, painting by Paul Nash / WikiArt

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May 17, 2022