Distinguishing Wishes and Beliefs from Facts in Evidence

In the prevention of childhood and adolescent obesity, let us have our wishes and beliefs, but distinguish them from facts in evidence. Wishes are good things. They are the muses which impel us to action to work for a better future.

Belief is a good thing. Our staunch belief that something can work gives us the strength to persevere when things do not work right away.

But wishes and beliefs are not evidence.

Most people I know wish we could prevent childhood and adolescent obesity. I, too, wish it.

Belief in Prevention

Many people I know believe that we will be able to prevent childhood and adolescent obesity with the right environmental changes. I find it plausible.

But wishes and beliefs notwithstanding, as scientists, we must report the current evidence as it is.

In two new and important papers, Carolyn Summerbell and colleagues help us sort this out.

A Systematic Review

After a thorough Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of the CHILDHOOD literature, Summerbell and colleagues concluded:

“The body of evidence in this review demonstrates that a range of school‐based ‘activity’ interventions, alone or in combination with dietary interventions, may have a modest beneficial effect on obesity in childhood at short‐ and medium‐term, but not at long‐term follow‐up. Dietary interventions alone may result in little to no difference.” – DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD015328.pub2

After a thorough Cochrane systematic review and meta-analysis of the ADOLESCENT literature, Summerbell and colleagues concluded:

“The evidence demonstrates that dietary interventions may have little to no effect on obesity in adolescents. There is low‐certainty evidence that activity interventions may have a small beneficial effect on BMI at medium‐ and long‐term follow‐up. Diet plus activity interventions may result in little to no difference.” – DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD015330.pub2

Kudos to Francesca Spiga, Carolyn D Summerbell, and their colleagues for bringing this to light.

What Can We Say?

So, when asked by school PTAs, by NGO and charitable foundation leaders, by state governors, and by parents what we experts can offer in the realm of childhood and adolescent obesity prevention, what can we say with integrity?

We can say:

“I sincerely wish that we will be able to prevent childhood and adolescent obesity.”

“I sincerely wish that we will someday have rock solid scientific evidence that we are able to prevent childhood and adolescent obesity.”

“But, sitting here today, I must be honest and state that there is currently no compelling evidence that we can do so with current methods.”

What do you think?

 
This post, by Dean David Allison, was originally published here. Republished with permission.

 
Dream, painting by Yasuo Kuniyoshi / WikiArt

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June 13, 2024