Shifting Dynamics of Obesity Rates in the New NHANES Data

This is a milestone we’ve been anticipating. New NHANES data on obesity are out and they mark a shift in the dynamics of obesity rates. We now have data to suggest that the overall rate of obesity – which has been climbing relentlessly for four decades – appears to be leveling out at about 40%.

On the other hand, the prevalence of severe obesity is still on an upward trend. In 2014, the rate was 8%. By 2023, it was up to 10%. Professor Solveig Cunningham explains why this trend is not encouraging for the health of the population:

“Seeing increases in severe obesity is even more alarming because that’s the level of obesity that’s most highly associated with some of the highest levels of cardiovascular disease and diabetes and lower quality of life.”

No, It’s Not the GLP-1s

If you’re tempted to wonder about the role that rising use of GLP-1 agonists like semaglutide might play, forget it. It is too soon to expect to see any effect. “Hopefully that is something we can see in the future,” said Samuel Emmerich, the lead author on this new analysis.

As a matter of fact, this is a shift in dynamics we’ve been expecting for a while now. Looking at NHANES obesity data back in 2018, we noted that the trends in overweight and obesity were shifting. We wrote:

“It may be that we are seeing the early stages of a plateau. Perhaps we are seeing that a quarter of the population is resistant to the same factors causing the rest of us to gain more and more weight over time. We can learn from these trends if we pay close attention.”

Objective Measures Are Important

But make no mistake. These are important data because NHANES is the most reliable source we have for keeping tabs on obesity prevalence. It comes from actual measurements of height and weight – not the self-reports that fuel BRFSS and the famous state-by-state obesity maps. While it is useful to have regional data, self-reports about height and weight can be flaky.

So we can offer three cheers for NHANES, one cheer for a plateau in obesity prevalence, and a groan for the growing burden of severe obesity. There’s much work to do.

Click here for the new report from CDC, here, here, and here for further reporting.

Static-Dynamic Gradation, painting by Paul Klee / WikiArt

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September 24, 2024