UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, Delivers His Budget Statement

At Last, a Budget Estimate for Covering Obesity in Medicare

For a decade now, we’ve been waiting for the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to publish a budget estimate for covering obesity care in Medicare. Yesterday, they finally did it. They told us the cost for covering these meds might start at $1.6 billion in 2026 and rise to $7 billion by 2034. They saw the potential for a billion dollars in savings from improved health by 2034 from the use of these drugs.

This is an important milestone because a CBO score signals that Congress is serious about fixing the mistake of excluding obesity care from Medicare. Obesity Action Coalition CEO Joe Nadglowski praised the work of CBO on this:

“We commend CBO’s effort to create a budgetary outlook around the proposed utilization and cost estimates for the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act.

“Featuring realistic expectations, the analysis puts to rest wild exaggerations of bankrupting Medicare by providing access to obesity medications. Assuming Medicare spends more than 200 billion dollars annually on all Part D medicines, adding 1% – 3% in expenses over the 10-year window to cover obesity medicines seems like a reasonable investment for life changing and life saving medications.”

Only people who would hope to get something for nothing would be disappointed by these estimates.

Wild Exaggerations

Nadglowski was not kidding about the wild exaggerations. Back in March, three economists staked out a dire predicition in the New York Times. Obesity drug costs will blow up the federal budget:

“Under reasonable assumptions and at current prices, making this class of drugs available to all obese Americans could eventually cost over $1 trillion per year. That exceeds the savings to the government from reduced diabetes incidence and other health care costs from excess weight by $800 billion annually.”

For those lacking the patience to read their essay, the Times paired it with an animated graphic. It featured prescription vials bundled up like sticks of dynamite, shaking and ready to explode. Minus the bomb graphic, those same economists published their estimates in the New England Journal of Medicine a year earlier. Clearly they wanted to be heard.

Bias Fades Slowly

The bias that goes into panicky predictions about “budget bombs” is fading, but it’s stubborn. Folks like William Sitwell seem to resent the mere existence of people with obesity, writing that:

“Fat people are costing us all billions. It’s time to get tough. I used to think the obese should be left alone – but they’re beginning to crush us.”

Disease is the enemy, not the people who suffer with it. Costs for obesity medicines need to come down and they will. But it certainly is good to have some solid numbers from the CBO. It clears the way to move forward to improve access to obesity care. It is time to pass the Treat and Reduce Obesity Act.

Click here for the full report from the CBO, here and here for further reporting.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, Delivers His Budget Statement, photograph by HM Treasury, licensed under UK Open Government License v 3.0

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October 9, 2024