Nope, the Pandemic Did Not Make Us All Gain Weight
Almost immediately when the COVID pandemic came to dominate our lives, speculation began that the stress and changes it brought would make us all gain weight. Such speculation has not let up, even now. But it turns out that for adults, this is a false narrative. The best data we have for population-based estimates of actual measured obesity prevalence (NHANES) says it did not rise during and after the pandemic in U.S. adults.
For the period from 2017 to March of 2020, the prevalence of obesity in U.S. adults was 41.9%. For 2021 to 2023, the number was 40.3. That nominal drop was not statistically significant. So the fact is that adult obesity prevalence did not change after the pandemic. Severe obesity continued to rise, just as it had been doing before the pandemic.
Anecdotes to Fuel an Appealing Narrative
Narratives help us make sense of the world. And the narrative that stress and confinement of the pandemic might prompt weight gain and a rise in obesity rates certainly made sense. Anecdotal reports about the “quarantine 15” served as great clickbait. But it contributed elements of stigma and moral panic to an already difficult time.
Because of this narrative’s intuitive appeal, people came forward with quite a number of anecdotal and flawed reports to suggest the pandemic was indeed bringing a rise in obesity. This is how confirmation bias works. It became woven into accepted wisdom about the pandemic, without a solid foundation of evidence.
Adults No, Kids Maybe
Very soon, we expect to see new data from NHANES on obesity prevalence in children and youth. We expect to see that, at least in some age groups, the pandemic may have brought an extra rise in obesity. Good data during the pandemic certainly pointed to this possibility.
This is a reminder that speculation can play a role in public discourse. But if we wait for data and sound analysis, we can discover the truth.
For the latest CDC report click here and then here for further perspective.
Sidewalk Message, April 2020, photograph by Ted Kyle / ConscienHealth
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October 1, 2024
