Sometimes Numbers for Obesity Get Fuzzy
At a press event last week, announcing a deal to make obesity medicines more affordable, CMS Administrator Mehmet Oz told us “Americans will lose 135 billion pounds by the midterms” because of this. Comedian Stephen Colbert pointed out a problem with the numbers. They imply that every single American will be losing 393 pounds. It is a prime example. When the subject is obesity, the numbers often get fuzzy.
Knowledge, Economies, and Obesity
A stroll through health economics offers some interesting, albeit fuzzy numbers related to obesity. In the European Journal of Health Economics, for example, Ronald Djeunankan and colleagues explain that the rise of a knowledge-based economy in a country “increases the likelihood of obesity in society, at least up to a threshold.” This supports the concept of an Obesity Kuznets Curve.
Does economic progress bring on obesity? Some scholars of economics have numbers to suggest that it might.
Economics, Value, and Affordability of Health
The numbers also get fuzzy when people try to figure out the value of obesity treatment and gains in health that come with it. The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review issued a report on the effectiveness and value of semaglutide and tirzepatide at the end of October. It concludes that these medicines are “highly cost-effective” but they raise “serious concerns about affordability.”
In short, they’re valuable, and yet we can’t afford them for everyone who needs them. So health systems are cutting people off from access to these medicines, dooming them to pay for very costly complications that are preventable.
The dilemma reminds us of a person with a leaking roof. When it’s raining, repairs are not possible. When the sun shines, he sees no need to spend the money on repairs. The end result is not good.
Likewise, fuzzy numbers around cost and value for obesity care are not serving us well.
Register here for this Thursday’s ICER hearing on their report. You can also download the report here. For Djeunankan’s paper, click here.
Pounds to Be Lost, outtake from a monologue by Stephen Colbert / CBS
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November 10, 2025
