If you’re looking for early warning signs of a food crisis, don’t just watch grocery shelves. Watch fertilizer and fuel.
Right now, the war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran is hitting both fuel and fertilizer – hard. And that matters because modern food systems run on energy and fertilizers. Disrupt either one, and food prices rarely stay put.
Start With Energy
Start with energy. Oil prices have surged more than 50% in a matter of weeks, driven by disruptions in the Persian Gulf and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil supply. That spike alone raises the cost of growing, processing, and transporting food. From diesel for tractors to fuel for shipping, energy touches every calorie we consume.
Fertilizer Is the Big Story
But the bigger story may be fertilizer. Roughly a third of global fertilizer trade moves through that same region. With shipping disrupted, prices have already jumped 30–40% in some markets. And unlike oil, there are no strategic reserves of nitrogen fertilizer waiting in the wings.
This is happening at the worst possible time – planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. Farmers can delay purchases, switch crops, or use less fertilizer. But none of those options are good for yields. Lower yields mean tighter supplies later this year.
Food Prices Rise, Insecurity Follows
The International Monetary Fund is already warning that the conflict will push food and fertilizer prices higher, with the greatest harm falling on countries least able to absorb the shock.
Put it all together, and the pattern is familiar. We’ve seen it after oil shocks, after the war in Ukraine, and after pandemic disruptions. Food prices rise. Food insecurity follows.
Even if this conflict resolves quickly, the ripple effects are already baked in. And if it drags on, the risks move from painful to potentially catastrophic.
Food, it turns out, is never far from geopolitics.
For further perspective, click here, here, here, and here.
Naval Battle for the Islands of Loz, 7 February 1813, painting by Louis-Philippe Crépin / WikiArt
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March 31, 2026 at 8:13 am, David Brown said:
“Because nitrogen fertilizer is a primary input for corn—the foundational feedstock for US beef, dairy, and poultry—prices for these products are likely to climb further.” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-iran-wars-economic-fallout-wont-stop-at-oil-agriculture-and-aluminum-are-next/
It was never a good idea to feed seeds to livestock or even consume meat on a daily basis. Aging body builders know to reduce meat intake late in life. For example, Arnold Schwarzenegger has substantially reduced his consumption of animal products; he says he now eats about 80% less meat than he used to, while still including some animal foods like eggs, salmon, and chicken.